Endorse

The start of the La Liga 2025 season is marked by the return of the historical Barcelona and Real Madrid rivalry. With their dominance over the Spanish League, Atlético Madrid has been the underdog ever since they won the title back in 2014. They are able to fend off the ridicule from the public because of the vision actively pursuing goals in the lower ranks. These are the reasons behind Atlético challenging Atlético’s mid argento gap through equipping them with smart recruitment changes under the guidance of Diego Simeone. Combining all of this gives Atlético a fighting chance and competitive title odds in 2025. In this article, we will discuss strategic placements that will yield the most to succeed in claiming the title, tackle the big three of Spain, and analyze the rise of Atlético in the secrets behind the change in title odds.

Atlético’s Resurgence Under Diego Simeone

Under Diego Simeone, Atlético has transformed into a football powerhouse after he took over in late 2011. They now stand as the third strongest team in Spain. Despite their progress being defined through wins of Copa del Rey and Champions League finals, they’ve come close but haven’t been able to lift the La Liga title after 2014. In recent seasons, they’ve been getting closer with the ability to fight for elite european football. Atlético finished as runners up in 2021 and 2023 and in 2024 came just three points short from Barca, showing elite level defensive resilience. 

The backbone of this remodel of Atlético has stemmed from their enduring back line mixed with dynamic attacking partnerships of João canceled and Álvaro Morata. Gimenez’s masterclass defending with emerging stars such as Nehuen Perex Surgery have proven vital to their last push Atlético. Midfield signings provided some creative relief which allowed simeone to switch from his favoured 4-4-2 block to a more aggressive 3-5-2 creating fluidity filled systems. Most importantly, the focus on squad depth during summer transfer windows showed instant impact. Signing a brand new powerful box to box midfielder along a technically explosive winger who has the ability to stretch defenses with direct runs, toned down past issues the squad faced with injuries and busy schedules.

Evaluating Title Odds: Barça and Madrid vs. The Underdog

Las Palmas has set the odds for the 2025 season and sees it shaping into a three-horse race. With Real Madrid coming from yet another Champions League victory, they find themselves at the forefront with 3/1 odds. Madrid has seemingly returned to full fitness. With key veterans recovering and a balanced squad that can probably handle multiple competitions, Barcelona lies closely behind them at 7/2. Barcelona’s youthful core spearheaded by Pedri and Gavi is maturing into a cohesive long-term project thanks to the efforts of Xavi.

Atlético sits contrarily at 11/1. At first glance those odds do seem like an outsider but context is key. Those odds for Atletico do not leave much room for error: unlike their rich competitors, Atletico cannot afford mid-season slumps. While this might pose many problems, that tag does offers some advantages. In recent years, amoung heavy favorites, under-performers such as Barcelona and Madrid have taken critical hits during winter world cup prepals  (2022 and 2023 respectively). If Atletico can maintain consistency, avoid the complacency that sometimes accompanies pre-season hype, and do capitalize on a lapse from either rival, they will have a fair chance at winning the underdog narrative.

Main Considerations During The Title Race  

Several factors will determine if Atletico will be able to breach the sieges put up by Barcelona and Real Madrid. The first factor is injury management: Atletico is trying to navigate a grueling schedule without the depth of squad relative to their competitors. Preventing muscle injuries through strategic rotation and sports science interventions will be essential. The second factor is head-to-head results: direct encounters with Barcelona and Madrid matter far more than other league games. It results in a self-fulfilling psychological boost when you are on the winning side of these head-to-head encounters (Atletico won both of such ‘Big Three’ matches last season). Being able to replicate that early season success could shift momentum and psychology decisively. Third, middle and lower side table consistency: Atletico has previously dropped points to promoted or relegation struggling teams and those have added up. They need to stay midway through the season focused on fighting marquee fixtures that lay weeks away. Finally, European Distractions: participation in the Europa League or the Champions League shapes travel demands and training cycle. In order to balance fatigue and pace decline, Atletico will need to manage continental obligations tightly.

What Atlético Madrid Needs to do to Create History

To turn the 11/1 odds into contention, having encountered Atlético Madrid’s hurdles in literally challenging for the title, they’ll need to bolster things around. Firstly, Atlético Madrid absolutely must sign a reliable goalscorer who can alleviate some of the pressure off Morata by scoring half-chances. In addition, bringing in a new winger who can seamlessly provide width that will calm tightly packed defenses and aid in scoring.

Controlling the midfield is very important. Atlético Madrid do not have the luxury to get overrun for too long so an impact retention ball is encouraged. That combined with transitional breakouts and burst modes will single handedly solve the summer recruit issue they seem to be struggling with.

Now let me nitpick the matters handed to me. Simeone’s lack of tactical flexibility is a point where I will drag him for. Last season’s default Atlético range cage style parked defensive buses largely led to wins and scoring not being managed. In chasing mode, lots of goals have come needing to be performed. An introduction of a sporadic high-press stage, most definitely at home, will help a lot with avoiding being ‘park the bus-ed’ by other teams.

Morata shouldn’t be squeezed out from too many effortless chances. Balancing these tweaks alongside mid game formation switches if on the losing side, dash in the end zone to give Atlético crucial saved points. 

In terms of Spanish league stability, the club does play a role. Giving long-term contratos of knee-jerk style managers blindly reacts undercuts sets a base. Milder change can help trust the team foster a positive atmosphere dissolved in slow motion which will massively help Atletico Madrid steer through tightly contested title series.